COVID19 – 9.26% of Visitors to Italy Left Before Quarantine

On Monday the Italian authorities took the bold step to impose quarantine restrictions on not just the northern ‘red’ and ‘yellow’ zones, but the entire country. Neighbouring countries such as Austria to the north also took steps to close their border, and many flight operators cancelled flights to- and from the country. With many thousands of tourists and businesses travellers still in the country at that point, analysis of our mobile Geo-data highlights the speed at which those who could get away did so.

Overseas visitors decline 9.26% in two weeks

The chart above shows the weekly proportion of overseas visitors present in Italy compared to Italian residents over the course of the last 4.5 months from November ‘19 to this week, indexed around the 2019 mean share. In the short period from Feb 23rd to March 8th 2020, we have detected a 9.26% decrease in overseas visitors present in the country – the fastest and most pronounced drop in our 4 year dataset history.

So, who left?

Analysis of overseas visitors present in Italy in the month preceding this flight (Feb 1st to Feb 23rd) that were no longer present over the subsequent phase – Feb 23rd to March 8th – shows residents of Germany, Sweden, France and Spain decline at a rate of 1.15% per week collectively, or 2.3% over the latter period. With tourism responsible for 13% of Italian GDP, this change represents another challenge for the Italian economy to surmount when the danger posed by COVID-19 eventually passes.

The map above shows the percentage change in the proportion of overseas resident visitors to Italy using the average weekly share for each country both before and after February 23rd. Interested to discover how our global geo-data products can help inform your business strategies and keep tabs on the market?  Reach out to our new business team today to discuss your requirements and evaluation needs.